A Swing and a Miss for Speaker Johnson

As House Republicans fight with themselves, MAGA Mike teeters on the edge of irrelevance.

Trump strikes out, and Johnson whiffs

Tuesday night Donald Trump suffered what most observers consider to have been a humiliating defeat at the hands of Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Over nearly the entirety of a 90 minute presidential debate, the former president ranted, rambled and raged, while Ms. Harris cooly and calmly cornered him with his own incoherence. (Yes, I am channelling Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ alliterative rhetorical flourishes..)

As usual, Mr. Trump insists this was his “best debate ever”, even as he whines that the moderators were unfair to him. But his assessment doesn’t really matter. Tellingly, news reports on Wednesday morning cited numerous anonymous Republicans who were deeply disappointed with what they witnessed with their own eyes and ears. According to The Hill, one of them confirmed those reports:

A second House Republican, who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic, said “many” in the GOP conference were “disappointed” that Trump could not stay on message throughout the debate.

Another anonymous Republican who had not seen the debate remarked, “I didn’t watch it but I’m not hearing anything good from it.” And even the brazen opportunist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. commented that Trump’s debate performance might result in a “drop in support” among independent voters. 

That’s an undisputed victory for the Vice-President. It wasn’t even close.

Speaker pulls CR from floor before vote.

On Wednesday Houses Republicans were scheduled to pass a MAGA-crafted Continuing Resolution (CR) that would authorize continued federal spending at current levels beyond the end of Fiscal Year 2024 (September 30).

As we explained last week (Here They Come Again), Congress must either pass 12 Appropriation bills for FY 2025 in 3 weeks (a virtual impossibility), or pass a Continuing Resolution (CR) to allow for more time to do so.

Typically, this would be a routine procedure. A near unanimous vote would pass a Resolution consisting of boiler-plate language to allow a few weeks grace before funding expires. But as has been the case throughout the 118th Congress, the extremist MAGA faction continues to hold Republicans hostage to their demands. So the proposed CR is anything but typical.

Despite the fact that it will never pass the Senate or be signed by the President, the MAGA CR incorporates the SAVE (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility) Act, and extends spending authority until March 2025 — well into the next presidential administration. (The SAVE Act would require voters to show evidence of U.S. citizenship to register, a blatant attempt to suppress the vote among more marginalized populations.)

The point of doing this is entirely performative. It’s intended to use the threat of a government shutdown as a means of attracting attention and sowing doubt about the integrity of the November election. But because the Republican Party is hopelessly splintered into multiple factions, the attention it’s attracting is to the party’s own failures.

After having promised a Wednesday vote on the CR, the Speaker was forced to acknowledge at the last minute that there is not enough Republican support for the measure as currently drafted. Since there’s little likelihood that the holdouts can be converted, Speaker Johnson is again flailing, his weak leadership once more on full display.

It didn’t have to be this way. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy experienced a near identical situation last year, and a more perceptive leader could easily have maneuvered around the MAGA extremists.

Quoting from our post last week (Here They Come Again) :

“After presiding over the least productive Congress in modern history, there remains just a single task that the Republican majority must absolutely accomplish before the end of the year. Authorize funding for the continued operation of the United States Government.

Speaker Johnson has this last opportunity to demonstrate mature leadership by refusing to allow the MAGA charade. He needs to be decisive, and to make a few simple but serious demands of his caucus members”

Of course, he didn’t do that. And Mike Johnson will almost certainly conclude his brief tenure as Speaker with yet another humiliating instance of needing to be rescued by the Leader of the minority party — the next Speaker of the House, Hakeem Jeffries — and his de facto bipartisan alliance.

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Rare Opportunity to Flip GOP House Seat

Wisconsin 08 has been reliably Republican, but this year is different.

Regular readers of Feathers of Hope posts already know that we are robustly supporting Kristin Lyerly’s candidacy to represent Wisconsin’s 8th district in the House of Representatives. An OB-GYN, Dr. Lyerly is a pro-choice activist whose lawsuit against the State of Wisconsin restored abortion rights in that State following the Supreme Court’s overruling of Roe v. Wade.

Because the district has had only one Democratic Representative this century (Steve Kagen, 2007-2011), this race does not usually show up on various lists of potentially competitive districts. But the contest this year is dramatically different from what it has been in the past.

In April, Mike Gallagher, who had held the seat since 2017, resigned from Congress in a very public display of disgust with MAGA extremism. Given the 8th district’s history of support for traditional, mainstream Republicans, this was hardly a surprise. Mr. Gallagher’s predecessor, Republican Reid Ribble who served from 2011 until 2017, was a co-founder of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus in the House. After January 6, 2021 Mr. Ribble said that the Republican Party needed to move past Donald Trump, and that he would have voted to impeach Mr. Trump for his role in the attack on the Capitol.

The seat has been vacant since April, and the primary election to nominate candidates to succeed Rep. Gallagher was held on August 13. Had Republicans nominated either Andre Jacque or Richard Roth, two experienced mainstream State legislators, it’s likely the seat would have remained safely Republican. But in a 3-way primary race with Tony Wied, a Trump-endorsed MAGA candidate, Mr. Jacque and Mr. Roth split the moderate vote. The result was a victory for Mr. Wied with support from only 40% of the Republican electorate. He has no experience in public service, and recently sold his chain of gas stations to help finance the campaign.

So the choice is either a MAGA extremist who has no apparent qualifications for the office, or an accomplished physician/pro-choice activist with a history of service to the community. Given those alternatives, there’s a good chance the mainstream Republicans in District 8 who did not support Mr. Wied in the primary may not vote for him in November. That makes this an unexpected opportunity for Democrats.

Len Lubinsky has also noted this race is winnable.

Mr. Lubinsky writes a well-regarded series, “Len’s Political Notes and Letters” urging people to provide financial support to Democratic candidates — specifically those candidates for whom additional resources could make the difference between winning and losing. On July 29, even before the August primary, Len noted that the retirement of Mike Gallagher made this a competitive race. With the nomination of a MAGA partisan, it has only become more so.

Here’s what Len had to say about Dr. Kristin Lyerly in July:

LEN'S POLITICAL NOTES

(https://lenspoliticalnotes.com/lens-political-note-660-kristin-lyerly-wisconsin-08/)

July 29th , 2024 Len’s Political Note #660 Kristin Lyerly Wisconsin 08

Kristin Lyerly is a local for Wisconsin 08. She is from Kaukauna –between Green Bay and Oshkosh. When she announced her candidacy in April, she said she would represent northeast Wisconsin. That is what Wisconsin 08 is – a district in northeast Wisconsin that is usually represented by Republicans and usually supports Republican presidential candidates, but peppers that support by occasionally electing Democratic Members of Congress and has occasionally been carried by Democratic presidential candidates.

Kristin Lyerly went away to college – to the University of Minnesota. She returned to the University of Wisconsin for medical school. A 1993 graduate, by 2009 she was a resident physician in obstetrics and gynecology at the University of Wisconsin. She worked in Green Bay at Bellin health and in Maple Grove, Minnesota. After five years as a consultant, she was back in Wisconsin working at a Planned Parenthood Clinic in Sheboygan.

At some point in this process, Kristin Lyerly became as much an advocate for women and Wisconsin as she was a physician. She spent a year as the host of the Up North Podcast. Her medical specialties began to include a description as a rural health specialist. Her communication specialty included time on radio and television – a Morning Show Co-Host plus an offering on radio called the “Public Cervix Announcement.” Before deciding on her Congressional candidacy in Wisconsin, she spent parts of a year working with Navajo, Hopi, and Paiute women and their families in Arizona. During the course of her career, she married James Graham Lyerly, had four children, and, in 2022, divorced.

Kristin Lyerly’s preparation in Arizona for a Wisconsin Congressional run is not what you would call conventional. We don’t know who her Republican opponent will be yet. The primary is later in August. Two Republicans have announced – a State Senator and a recent candidate for Lt. Governor.

(Her opponent is Tony Wied, a MAGA Republican endorsed by Donald Trump. —J W)

Kristin Lyerly’s candidacy is made plausible because Wisconsin 08 had a Republican Member of Congress who was not conventional. Mike Gallagher resigned from Congress disgusted with Congress and his party. Gallagher has a BA from Princeton and a PhD from Georgetown. He is a former Marine intelligence officer and has had the courage to criticize Donald Trump — for firing James Comey, for denying the existence of Russian interference in the election, and much more. The final straw for Mike Gallagher was the attempt to impeach homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Mike Gallagher’s vote was the decisive one in rejecting the impeachment effort. He resigned after that vote and then delayed his resignation so he could vote in favor of military aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. In his last election, Mike Gallagher won by 25 points. Neither of the Republican candidates are men of the caliber of Mike Gallagher.

(Even less so is Tony Wied! — J W)

Kristin Lyerly brings an entirely different experience from Mike Gallagher. She has had a courageous life of a different sort. She was a plaintiff in the Wisconsin lawsuit that eventually kept abortion legal in the state. She had previously performed abortions in Wisconsin, but moved her practice to Minnesota after the US Supreme Court Hobbes decision left open the possibility of prosecution of Wisconsin medical practitioners under a 19thcentury law.

The special election to replace Mike Gallagher will occur in November at the same time as the general election elects a Member of Congress for the following two years. In both races, Kristin Lyerly is the only Democrat. Kristin Lyerly is experienced at getting her message out. Help provide her with the resources to do just that. DONATE.

And on Sept. 7:

The special election will occur in November at the same time as the general election. In this Congressional race, abortion will be a key issue.  There are no polls here.  On July 24, Kristin Lyerly had $300,000.  Tony Wied, the Republican primary winner sold his chain of gas stations to finance his race. He spent $600,000 on the primary (Kristin Lyerly spent $700,000 getting herself known).  On July 24, he had $200,000.  The money you give could make a difference for Kristin Lyerly in this race.  DONATE. VOLUNTEER.  This seat could get flipped.

We can make a real difference by calling attention to this race, and asking that more Democratic resources be directed to it.

One place to start is Simon Rosenberg at Hopium Chronicles. Mr. Rosenberg has developed a list of districts “most likely to flip”, and has raised over $1 million for those candidates. Even if he doesn’t add Kristin Lyerly to his list, it’s a good way to raise her visibility among the pros who decide who’s competitive where.

Email Simon Rosenberg here: simonwdc@substack.com

Last week, one of our members reached out to Jessica Craven (Chop Wood, Carry Water) urging her to publicize Dr. Lyerly’s candidacy. To our delight, Jessica agreed that this race is winnable, and that she too is on record supporting her.

You can learn more about Dr. Lyerly here: Meet the Candidate

To help support Kristin Lyerly’s campaign, visit her website: www.KristinForWisconsin.com

This is a network of ordinary citizens. In a democracy, we exercise our power by raising our voices. To be silent is to be powerless.