GOP Fractures Are Becoming Chasms

Plus, A Ukraine Aid Update -- Call House Members to sign Discharge Petition for Senate-passed HR 815.

Mar 18, 2024

Feathers of Hope is a network of ordinary citizens who have joined together around a shared commitment to diminishing the power and influence of MAGA extremists in the House of Representatives.

Since January, 2023, we have been urging moderate Republicans and Democrats to form a bipartisan majority voting bloc in order to conduct our nation’s legislative business, and to defend the institution from its internal enemies.

Note: This site can also be accessed by entering FeathersOfHope.net in your browser window

* * * Please scroll to the bottom of this post to find contact information for Republican representatives who support Aid to Ukraine. Call one, several or all of them today. Urge them to sign the discharge petition for the Senate-passed bill (HR 815), so it can be brought to the floor of the House for a vote. * * *

It’s hard to win a presidential election.

Even when your party is unified and motivated, winning requires sound structural support as well as sustained effort.

The outstanding Democratic political strategist and analyst Simon Rosenberg is fond of saying “I’d rather be us than them” when talking about this year’s presidential and congressional campaigns. Among the many reasons he cites for this is the growing dissension within the Republican Party itself.

Despite what appears to be Donald Trump’s consolidation of control over party institutions, longstanding tensions and bitterness between traditional conservatives and newly-empowered MAGA extremists show no sign of diminishing. In the most recent edition of his Substack Newsletter The Hopium Chronicles, Mr. Rosenberg makes this noteworthy observation:

“A big chunk of the GOP - 20%-30% - has deep reservations about backing Trump and MAGA; a remarkable number have said they are even open to voting for Biden.”

While we here at Feathers of Hope are focused primarily on defending the institution of the House of Representatives rather than on electoral politics as such, there is considerable overlap between the two. Inspired by Dan Snyder’s essential handbook On Tyranny, our network was founded and has grown by advocating a strategy of directly confronting the obstructionist tactics of the minority MAGA faction in the People’s House. Obviously, the fewer of them there are, the more successful we will be. So the prospect of electing more Democrats to the House is unquestionably a priority for us as well.

In this regard, we were encouraged last spring when we first noted the depth of dissension that was simmering beneath the surface of the Republican Conference. Of course, this had been on display during the marathon balloting needed to elect a Speaker in the first days of the 118th Congress. But Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) had been surprisingly adept since January at balancing the demands of moderates against those of the MAGA extremists — until he wasn’t.

It’s worth recalling some of that history now, as the fractures hinted at then have never been mended.

In June, following the passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA), which lifted the debt ceiling and established spending limits for FY 2024, there was clearly a growing and potentially irreconcilable rift within the House Republican Conference.

In a post titled Is There A Crack In The Wall? (June 29, 2023), we observed:

Responsible senior Members of the House have been losing patience with the antics of MAGA activists, and that resentment is being expressed ever more openly. Rep. Bacon (R-NE) was explicit:
“The small group acts like we’re in a parliament in which the House majority can get whatever it wants. In reality, we’re in a bicameral with three branches of government and separation of powers. If we want to get something done it will involve working across the aisle. The small group of GOP individualists want a 100% and will end up with zero.”
Of course, that warning falls on deaf ears. And for those Members who take their jobs seriously, these time-wasting stunts by a minority of mostly junior Members are a major headache, delaying and perhaps derailing their own legislative priorities. One moderate, Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-ND) predicted, “if this continues to go on . . . rank and file are going to go crazy.”

—Is There A Crack In The Wall? (June 29, 2023)

But it wasn’t just the rank and file going crazy. In a move Mr. Bacon deemed “a little bit weird”, the Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-NY) joined Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) in a proposal to “expunge” the two impeachments of Donald Trump. Though there is no such thing as deleting something that actually took place, Speaker Kevin McCarthy was in favor of it. “I think it is appropriate,” he said.

In fact, every faction of the GOP was in its own way starting to go crazy.

As Speaker McCarthy began to lose control of his conference, MAGA and Freedom Caucus extremists were already fighting among themselves. Enraged that some of their own members had voted with Mr. McCarthy and Democrats to pass the FRA, there was even talk of expelling Marjorie Greene and founder Jim Jordan (R-OH) from the Freedom Caucus because of what was seen as a major betrayal.

Meanwhile, Ms. Greene and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) were engaged in a petty dust-up complete with name-calling over whose resolution to impeach President Biden should take priority.

Since then, the “growing dissension” has become steadily more pronounced.

Despite the agreed-upon spending parameters in the FRA, the “small group” referred to in Mr. Bacon’s statement continued to insist on their own budget numbers over the summer, finally culminating in Mr. McCarthy’s removal as Speaker.

The motion to “vacate the chair” exposed even more bitter divisions within the Republican Conference in a series of votes for a replacement candidate. Closed-door meetings devolved into screaming matches. Finally, after multiple attempts to reach consensus, a surprise show of unanimity elevated Mike Johnson (R-LA) to the office of Speaker.

But rather than resolving the matter, this faux unity merely papered over the problem. Despite an apparent unity on merely symbolic performative votes like impeaching the Secretary of Homeland Security, on substantive issues the Republican Party remains riven with angry divisions.

Mr. Johnson’s tenure has proven to be a mirror image of Mr. McCarthy’s.

Whereas Kevin McCarthy made concessions to MAGA extremists (which quickly became public) in order to win their support, Mike Johnson made concessions to the moderates (which were written down and kept private). While Speaker McCarthy would promise one thing to members and then do something else, Speaker Johnson merely suggests his position on an issue, then changes his mind. A pattern of deception and betrayal has been replaced by a pattern of uncertainty and indecision.

The result has been a near total breakdown of party discipline, just as the size of the party’s majority has shrunk because of the expulsion of George Santos (R-NY), and the resignations of Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Bill Johnson (R-OH). This past week, Ken Buck (R-CO) announced he’s leaving the House next Friday, reducing the GOP’s majority to only four.

Of course, in a unified conference a four-vote majority could still operate efficiently. But any hope for unity in this Republican Conference is long gone. The bickering and splintering has only become worse since last June. And as Donald Trump once again reasserts his dominance of the Party, his supporters mock as weak any who are deemed insufficiently loyal to him. Rather than seeking to reconcile differences between party factions in the interest of electoral success, Mr. Trump and his MAGA supporters are engaged in a campaign of excluding substantial numbers ( 20-30% ? ) of traditional Republicans from “his” party.

Objectively, this is electoral suicide on a national scale. It’s particularly the case when, as Mr. Rosenberg points out: “The Democratic Party is strong, unified and winning. Republicans are weak, divided and losing.”

Hey, Who Are The Real RINO’s ? !

MAGA extremists claim to be Republicans, but they have little in common with the GOP.

Since Donald Trump has secured enough delegates necessary to become the Republican presidential nominee in 2024, observers insist that the GOP is now exclusively his. But while it’s true that the party’s institutions are increasingly staffed by Trump loyalists, there’s little to suggest that those loyalists share an ideology recognizably Republican. Rather, what they share is intense dedication to a single personality.

Unlike the normal relationship between an American political party and its leader, Mr. Trump does not represent party members, or their beliefs. To the contrary, they represent him. There is no underlying principle or philosophy which the leader articulates. There is only fealty to him.

As we know, Donald Trump routinely attempts to evade personal responsibility by accusing adversaries of what he himself is doing. There’s no better example than his effort to steal the 2020 presidential elections: a scheme he called “Stop The Steal!” Likewise, he and his followers consistently characterize those who maintain faithfulness to traditional conservatism and existing political institutions, rather than to him personally, as Republicans In Name Only (RINO’s).

But in fact, Donald Trump is a Republican in Name Only. He is the RINO-in-Chief.

Consider for a moment some of those whom the MAGA world has called RINO’s:

Absurdly, both John McCain and Mitt Romney — the Republican nominees for President in 2008 and 2012 — have been assailed as insufficiently Republican.
Liz Cheney, daughter of the former Vice-President and herself former chair of the House Republican Conference;
Karl Rove, life-long Republican strategist (he was Chairman of the Utah Federation of Teenage Republicans in high school, over 50 years ago), and Senior Advisor/Deputy Chief of Staff to President George W. Bush;
Nikki Haley, former Republican Governor of South Carolina, and winner of the second-most delegates to the 2024 Republican convention in Milwaukee. Haley’s voters have been told they are “permanently barred” from MAGA world.
Any Republican primary candidate who isn’t endorsed by Donald Trump.
Most recently, it’s Matt Dolan, current Ohio State Senator and Finance Committee Chair, whose conservative Republican bona fides date back to his first election victory in Ohio twenty years ago.

Of course there are dozens, maybe hundreds, more whom the MAGA mob have targeted as RINO’s over the last couple years, in social media postings and in primary electoral contests. But in virtually every case, it is the target themself whose credentials are most solidly Republican.

At the Republican National Committee (RNC), leadership and key officers have been replaced with Donald Trump’s hand-picked choices. It’s safe to say that every one of these will prioritize Mr. Trump’s needs over those of the Republican Party. And despite what some few dissenters may have suggested, this will almost certainly include channelling millions of campaign dollars into his various legal expense funds. New co-chair Lara Trump (who, with zero experience in the field of party organization or administration, is spectacularly unqualified for the position) has been especially blunt on this subject. She has repeatedly asserted that the legal bills are legitimate campaign expenses, and that Republican voters support paying them.

This is especially bad news for state and local Republican committees who have traditionally depended on the RNC for funding down-ballot campaigns. The lack of resources will only exacerbate tensions already simmering over the rift between Trump-endorsed candidates and more traditional Republicans wanting to distance themselves from MAGA extremism. In swing states like Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, a combination of ideological conflicts, legal problems and financial disputes has left local parties in disarray.

As Shane Goldmacher and Nick Corasanti described the situation in a recent New York Time article:

“. . . the widespread problems have caused deepening concern among top Republican officials. There is no one explanation for the disparate party struggles in the swing states that matter most for the presidency. But across the map, state parties have become combat zones for the broader struggles inside the G.O.P. between the party’s old guard and its ascendant Trump wing, with rifts that can prove divisive and costly.”

It’s impossible to predict the future of this Republican Party.

But any organization devoted to one individual is inherently weak.

So long as the Republican Party was organized around what former Vice-President Mike Pence calls a “broad mainstream conservative agenda,” its members had incentives to overcome obstacles arising from personal differences. But when loyalty to the leader is the measure of eligibility for membership, everything is personal. And the party itself becomes a RINO — Republican in name only.

Recognizing this, Mr. Pence last week announced he would not endorse Donald Trump’s candidacy for President. Surprisingly for those of us who witnessed the January 6 mob calling for his execution, the former VP’s reasoning was not based on the threat to his life that Mr. Trump seemingly encouraged that day. Rather, it reflected a life-long loyalty to the Republican Party. As he explained when still a candidate for the nomination himself:

“The truth is the Republican Party did not begin on a golden escalator in 2015.
. . . Should the new populism of the right seize and guide our party, the Republican Party we’ve long known will cease to exist. And the fate of American freedom would be in doubt.”

As to whether his words will inspire other Republicans to follow his example, prioritizing preservation of the party over one electoral victory, it seems improbable. Far more likely, Trump’s RINO loyalists will follow their demigod wherever he leads them. And there’s even less reason to believe that they will rally around the daunting project of re-building the Republican Party once Mr. Trump and his MAGA-affiliated candidates for office are soundly defeated in November 2024.

Liz Cheney has predicted that the Republican Party is unlikely to survive past 2024. That may be true, or it may not. But either way, it’s hard to disagree with her observation that “Post-2024 election, we’re going to see a huge tectonic shift in our politics.”

It’s now been 5 weeks since HR 815 passed the Senate.

HR 815 is the National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, commonly known as the Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan Aid Package. The $60 billion in assistance to Ukraine included in this bill is considered essential for that embattled and courageous people to continue defending their homeland.

As Shalonda Young, Office of Management and Budget reported on December 4, 2023, regarding military assistance to Ukraine:

“I want to be clear: Without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from U.S. military stocks.
There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. We are out of money — and nearly out of time.”

By the end of the year, there had been no congressional action. And as predicted, the flow of assistance from the United States has stopped, to devastating effect.

The tide of war in Ukraine is turning to Russia’s favor.

As summarized in a recent “Situation Report” by Foreign Policy Magazine:

“Ukraine is quickly running out of supplies of Western air defense ammunition, which is seen as critical to defending Ukrainian cities from Russian missile attacks and keeping Russian warplanes out of Ukrainian skies.” In short, the threat is dire and immediate.

For a brief time in mid-February, it appeared that a comprehensive agreement among different factions in Congress was imminent. Demands for inclusion of US-Mexico border security provisions had been met, then withdrawn when the demand was rescinded. On February 13, the Senate approved HR 815 by a vote of 70-29.

But since then, the bill has languished in committee despite overwhelming support among House membership. With Speaker Mike Johnson refusing to bring the bill to the floor for a vote, a discharge petition finally began circulating last week to force action. The petition needs only a simple majority of House membership (217 of 432) to take effect. So far, over 175 members have signed — mostly Democrats.

That’s why we are again asking everyone to call the Republicans listed below and urge them to sign the petition now. Once the bill passes the House it would go directly to the President for his signature and immediately become law.

There is also another discharge petition being circulated in support of the “Defending Borders, Defending Democracies Act” (HR 7372), introduced by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA).

This stripped-down version of HR 815 substantially reduces the total amount of aid in the package; in Ukraine’s case from $60 billion to $48 billion. Limited to defense-only military aid, the bill also contains none of the $9.2 billion in humanitarian assistance for civilians in Gaza, the West Bank, and Ukraine included in HR 815.

It’s important to specify support for the Senate-passed HR 815 discharge petition.

By calling the Representatives listed below, urging that they sign the discharge petition for HR 815 now, we are giving voice to what an overwhelming majority of Americans support: immediate delivery of military assistance to Ukrainians courageously resisting Russia’s brutal attacks.
Simultaneously, we are defending the House of Representatives itself — confronting the obstruction of MAGA extremists and their attempt to disrupt the workings of our democratic republic.

Please call your Representative today. Urge them to sign the discharge petition for the Senate-passed HR 815, The National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act. If you don’t know their office phone number, you can call the U.S. Capitol Switchboard at (202) 224-3121.

Also, please call the office of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA): (202) 225-4000. Remind him that Ukraine is fast running out of resources and needs our assistance immediately. Bring the Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan aid bill, HR 815, to the floor now.

Finally, please call one, several or all of the following Republican representatives whom we know support aid to Ukraine. Urge them to join with Democrats to sign the discharge petition for HR 815 now, and then to vote for the bill.

Don Bacon (R-NE): (202) 225-4155 D.C. or (402) 938-0300 District
Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA): (202) 225-4276 D.C. or (215) 579-8102 District
Mike Gallagher (R-WI): (202) 225-5665 D.C. or (920) 301-4500 District
David Joyce (R- OH): (202) 225-5731 D.C. or (440) 352-3939 District
John Curtis (R-UT): (202) 225-7751 D.C. or (801) 922-5400 District
Ashley Hinson (R-IA): (202) 225-2911 D.C. or (319) 364-2288 District
Andrew Garbarino (R-NY) : (202) 225-7896 D.C. or (631) 541-4225 District
Dan Newhouse (R-WA): (202) 225-5816 D.C. or (509) 452-3243 District

(The following members represent districts carried by President Biden in 2020)

David Schweikert (R-AZ): (202) 225-2190 D.C. or (480) 946-2411 District
Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ): (202) 225-2542 D.C. or (520) 459-3115 District
John Duarte (R-CA): (202) 225-1947 D.C. or (209)-226-6880 District
David Valadao (R-CA): (202) 225-4695 D.C. or (661) 864-7736 District
Mike Garcia (R-CA): (202) 225-1956 D.C. or (661) 839-0532 District
Young Kim (R-CA): (202) 225-4111 D.C. or (714) 984-2440 District
Michelle Steel (R-CA): (202) 225-2415 D.C. or (714) 960-6483 District
Tom Kean (R-NJ): (202) 225-5361 D.C. or (908) 547-3307 District
Nick LaLota (R-NY): (202) 225-3826 D.C. or (631) 289-1097 District
Anhony D’Esposito (R-NY): (202) 225-5516 D.C. or (516) 739-3008 District
Mike Lawler (R-NY): (202) 225-6506 D.C. or 845 743-7130 District
Marc Molinaro (R-NY): (202) 225-5441 D.C. or (607) 242-0200 District
Brandon Williams (R-NY): (202) 225-3701 D.C. or (315) 233-4333 District
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR): (202) 225-5711 D.C. or (541) 604-3141 District
Jen Kiggans (R-VA): (202) 225-4215 D.C. or (757) 364-7650 District

This is a network of ordinary citizens. In a democracy, we exercise our power by raising our voices. To be silent is to be powerless.