Mike Johnson - Failed Speaker Rose to the Level of His Own Incompetence

Also, Ukraine: Timeline of the Speaker's betrayal.

Dec 09, 2024

118th Congress stumbles through its last days

With just eight legislative days remaining, the least productive Congress in over 150 years is staying true to itself to the very end — failing to pass even the most essential legislation before final adjournment and the expiration of its term.

Responsibility for this failure rests solely with Speaker Mike Johnson.

A well-known business management concept posits that employees tend to be promoted until they attain a level of “respective incompetence.” (The Peter Principle) That is, one’s competence at a set of tasks is rewarded by being assigned tasks requiring more competence, and then again until ultimately the person reaches a level beyond their competence.

While not strictly analogous to the byzantine paths of leadership advancement in the House of Representatives, there is a striking parallel to the end result in this case.

When Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was stripped of his Speakership in 2023, multiple ballots over several days failed to produce a majority for any of the nominated senior Members. On October 24, a late-night closed door meeting was convened. Neither the establishment candidates of McCarthy’s faction, nor insurgent candidates of the MAGA extremist faction had been able to unify the Conference, leaving moderates wielding the balance of power.

The next morning, Republicans voted unanimously for the soft-spoken Congressman from Louisiana whom the moderates promoted as a consensus candidate. A staunchly Christian conservative member of the Republican Study Committee (the self-designated “conscience of conservatism”), Rep. Johnson had been loosely affiliated with the McCarthy team. But he’d also won the respect of MAGA extremists for his legal work on the Trump election denial cases.

Thus Mike Johnson was unobjectionable to both factions, having excelled at tasks for which he was highly competent. But lacking any leadership experience, he was also wholly unsuited for the task at hand: serving as Speaker of the House. He had risen to the level of his own incompetence.

Arguably the most powerful position in government aside from the President, the Speaker has near complete control over the legislative process on the House side of Congress. With just the rarest exception, only bills approved by the Speaker can be brought to the floor for debate and vote. By the same token, bills lacking his (or her) approval are left to perish in committee.

As leader of the majority party, the Speaker of the House must not only preside over contentious factions within their own party, but also must shape potential legislation so that it can pass the Senate and ultimately by signed into law. And that is where the weak leadership of Speaker Johnson has failed most spectacularly.

This Congress passed fewer bills into law than any in recent history. But paradoxically, the House Rules Committee considered nearly double the number of bills as had the previous (117th) Congress under Speaker Pelosi.

In other words, Speaker Johnson allowed extensive debate on legislation that had no chance of passing the Democratic Senate, thus wasting precious legislative time. Consequently, the “lame duck” session now has only a few days to take action on several crucial matters, most especially these two:

Appropriation bills authorizing the federal government’s operations for Fiscal Year 2025 have still not been passed. And with so little time remaining there’s no likelihood that they will pass this session, though FY 2025 began over two months ago on October 1.
Last Summer, the Senate Appropriation Committee passed all 12 funding bills by overwhelmingly bipartisan majorities. Had the House simply taken up those same measures, they would have easily passed, and that body’s most fundamental obligation — funding government operations for the coming year — would have been fulfilled.
But rather than wield the power of his office to act decisively in the best interests of the country, Speaker Johnson surrendered that power to the most extreme elements of his party.
The only funding bills to be considered and debated were ones known from the start to have no prospect of becoming law.
Ironically, following the House’s failure to pass viable funding measures for FY 2025, Mr. Johnson had to rely on Democrats to avoid a government shutdown on October 1. Funding was authorized to continue at FY2024 levels by a Continuing Resolution (CR), which passed on a bipartisan vote of 341-82.
But that CR expires on December 20. Without passage of either the funding bills themselves or another CR before this Congress’ last day, the Treasury Dept. will have to implement “extraordinary measures” in order to avoid a government shutdown just as the new Congress and President are taking office in January.
Notably, a competing CR which would have extended current funding levels until March 28, 2025, was defeated in the House last September, despite being supported by Speaker Johnson. Opponents, including Chair of the House Appropriations Committee Tom Cole (R-OK), and 13 other Republicans, argued that passing FY 2024 appropriation bills was the responsibility of the current Congressional session, and should not be foisted onto the new administration’s first 100 days. As Committee Member Ryan Zinke (R-MT) memorably remarked:
“So what I want to do is make sure those 100 days are well spent, and not encumbered with diapers from last year, which will be a distraction.”
But it now looks like Speaker Johnson’s diapers from last year will still be lying around when the 119th Congress convenes.
The Farm, Food and National Security Act (FFNSA,) commonly known as the Farm Bill, must be renewed every five years. It had been scheduled for renewal in 2023, but because no agreement had yet been reached on a new bill in the first session of the 118th Congress, its expiration date was extended with a CR until September 30, 2024.
When that date arrived still without a new bill being passed, 140 Republican House members sent a letter to congressional leadership insisting that the Farm Bill must be passed during the last weeks of 2024:
“Farmers and ranchers do not have the luxury of waiting until next Congress for the enactment of an effective farm bill.”
Nevertheless, with only a few days left there’s no real prospect of passage. So another CR will be needed before funding runs out at the end of December.
As we explained in two posts last June, (A Test for the New Bipartisan Majority and Farm Bill Redux), the Farm Bill encompasses an enormously complex set of programs and subsidies. Its various provisions have far-reaching implications not only for agriculture but across sectors as disparate as energy, foreign aid, research, conservation, export/imports, nutrition assistance, economic development and more.
Even in normal times the stability and predictability of these programs is vitally important for those charged with long-range planning responsibilities. Now, with the newly arising prospect of retaliatory tariffs impacting agricultural commodity prices, the still unfinished Farm Bill will be subject to even more intense scrutiny and dispute in the new Congress.
Again, Speaker Johnson’s failure to prioritize passage of the Farm Bill has left major stake-holders adrift in uncertainty amid rapidly changing conditions.
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Despite all this, the Republican Conference met shortly after the election and voted to nominate Mr. Johnson for Speaker in January. While the vote was unanimous, it would be a mistake to conclude that he has unanimous support. To the contrary, he again emerged as the consensus candidate after a compromise was reached between Moderate and MAGA factions.

The same extremists who stripped Kevin McCarthy of his Speakership are still angry with Mike Johnson for working with Democrats during his tenure to pass essential legislation like government funding bills, the National Defense Authorization Act, and raising the debt limit, as well as the Ukraine military assistance package. Moderates seem less interested in the identity of the Speaker, and more concerned with the maintenance of an orderly institutional process. So they are insisting on certain rules changes as the price for their votes.

This dynamic favors the eventual re-election of a weak and floundering Speaker Johnson. But with the House Republican majority even smaller than it was in 2023, it wouldn’t be surprising to again see a few holdouts force multiple ballots in a bid to extract more concessions from the nominee. That would likely suit Donald Trump just fine. He values weakness and incompetence among members of his team.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

Of all Speaker Johnson’s failures, by far the one with the most tragic consequences was his repeated delays in bringing the Ukrainian military aid package to the floor of the House for a vote.

For the record, Ukraine is the victim of an unprovoked brutal assault by Russian forces which began in February, 2022. Because of the courage and determination of the Ukrainian people, bolstered by support and assistance from a coalition of nearly 50 allied nations, what was expected to be a 3-day rout has become a nearly 3-years long war.

The Russian invasion has resulted in about 500,000 people being killed or wounded. It has brought about the destruction of entire cities, the kidnapping by Russia of an estimated 20,000 Ukrainian children, wide-spread torture and the summary execution of both captured fighters and innocent civilians.

From the start, the United States has been Ukraine’s most steadfast ally. But in late 2023, pro-Russia MAGA Republicans within the House of Representatives began efforts to derail American military assistance to the beleaguered country.

On December 4, 2023, Shalonda Young, Office of Management and Budget reported this regarding stalled military assistance to Ukraine:

“I want to be clear: Without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from U.S. military stocks.
There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. We are out of money — and nearly out of time.”

By the end of the year, there had been no congressional action. And as predicted, the flow of assistance from the United States stopped, to devastating effect.

The tide of war in Ukraine quickly turned to Russia’s favor.

Foreign Policy Magazine issued the following “Situation Report”:

“Ukraine is quickly running out of supplies of Western air defense ammunition, which is seen as critical to defending Ukrainian cities from Russian missile attacks and keeping Russian warplanes out of Ukrainian skies. In short, the threat is dire and immediate.”

On February 13, 2024, the Senate finally passed the National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act (HR 815), providing $60 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. To no one’s surprise the vote was bipartisan and decisive, 70-29. The aid package enjoyed similarly broad support in the House. And if Speaker Johnson had been so inclined, he could have suspended the rules and brought the bill to the floor in a matter of hours. He did not.

Instead, as was typical of his weak leadership style, Mr. Johnson deferred to the minority MAGA faction of the Republican Party, and prevaricated for weeks in both his public statements and his actions

February 17, 2024: “Ukrainian forces are pulling out from the eastern frontline city of Avdiivka after a ferocious 10-year battle, the military chief has announced. It is the first Ukrainian city to fall to Russia since the takeover of the besieged Bakhmut last May. Footage from earlier this week showed the moment glide bombs hit the city, devastating a sector in Avdiivka. Such videos have been frequent in the past fortnight.”

“Experts told The Independent that a lack of military deliveries from Western partners had had a direct impact on the Russian advance on Avdiivka. Federico Borsari, a fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, said the artillery shortage had forced Kyiv to ration its counter-capabilities, which in turn allowed Russian forces to move their forward positions closer to the city before storming it.”

Shortly after being elected Speaker, Mr. Johnson had said this regarding aid for Ukraine:

“Now, we can’t allow Vladimir Putin to prevail in Ukraine, because I don’t believe it would stop there, and it would probably encourage and empower China to perhaps make a move on Taiwan. We have these concerns. We’re not going to abandon them.”

But the Speaker did abandon Ukraine, time and again.

Incredibly, his first excuse for taking no action was that HR 815 lacked “real (U.S.) border security provisions.” Never mind that an earlier version of HR 815 which included such provisions had been soundly defeated, drawing opposition even from many Republicans who objected to linking of the two unrelated issues.
March 10, 2024: “Ukraine won’t be able to win a war in the 21st century with weapons from the 20th. But for now we have what we have, and we train and fight with that.”
Following a late February ten-day recess, the Speaker turned his attention to the need to pass appropriation bills for FY 2024, by then already five months behind schedule. (Sound familiar?) That was finally completed on March 22, just in time for the Spring Recess.
March 22, 2024: “In the latest mass strike against Ukraine, Russia launched 31 missiles, two ballistic and 29 cruise ones, in the early morning of March 21, according to the Air Force. The attack mainly targeted Kyiv and the surrounding region.”
During the Spring Recess (March 23 - April 9), Mr. Johnson shamelessly offered false hope to increasingly desperate Ukrainian fighters. “We can’t sit on our hands and just offer thoughts and prayers as brave men and women fight for freedom,” he said. Leaving church on Easter Sunday, he told the press that “after praying on it,” he had decided to bring the Ukraine aid package to the floor as soon as the House reconvenes in a week.
But once more, he did no such thing.
March 25, 2024: “A series of explosions rocked Kyiv on March 25 as Russia launched yet another missile attack on Ukraine’s capital.”
In a post on X, United States Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, said: "Again this morning Russia is attacking Ukraine with hypersonic missiles. Over the last five days, Russia has launched hundreds of missiles and drones against a sovereign country. Ukraine needs our assistance now. There is not a moment to lose.”
When the House reconvened on April 9, Mr. Johnson again prioritized other issues. Among those was reauthorizing Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, and the entirely performative spectacle of presenting articles of impeachment for HHS Secretary Mayorkas to the Senate.
April 17, 2024: Kharkiv is at risk of becoming “a second Aleppo” unless US politicians vote for fresh military aid to help Ukraine obtain the air defenses needed to prevent long-range Russian attacks, the city’s mayor has warned. Ihor Terekhov said Russia had switched tactics to try to destroy the city’s power supply and terrorize its 1.3 million residents by firing into residential areas, with people experiencing unscheduled power cuts for hours at a time.
The mayor of Ukraine’s second city said the $60 billion US military aid package, currently stalled in Congress, was of “critical importance for us” and urged the west to refocus on the two-year-old war.
Amid growing impatience among Democrats and traditional Republicans with Speaker Johnson’s slow-walking of the aid package, a discharge petition to bring the Senate-passed HR 815 to the floor had garnered 195 signatures (of 218 needed for passage) by mid-April. The Washington Post reported that a substantial number of Republicans “have privately said they would sign onto the Democratic petition . . . if far-right Republicans block the conference from backing whatever Johnson proposes.” Other sources confirmed this to be the general consensus of opinion among congressional aides.
On Sunday, April 14, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) made a public plea to Speaker Johnson
“The world is on fire. We should stand with our democratic allies and push back against the enemies of freedom. The House must pass the bipartisan national security bill. Tomorrow.”
Still there was nothing from Mr. Johnson, until four days later. On April 18, less than 48 hours before the onset of yet another congressional recess, the Speaker finally unveiled his four-part Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan aid package.
The entire package passed the House on April 20 by 311-112, just as it would have if HR 815 had been brought to the floor back in February.

April 22, 2024: A Russian missile strike that broke in half a 240-metre (787-foot) television tower in Kharkiv on Monday is part of a deliberate effort by Moscow to make Ukraine's second largest city uninhabitable, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

Mr. Johnson failed to decisively confront the radical MAGA faction. While he equivocated, Ukrainians needlessly suffered additional casualties, severe infrastructure damage, and morale-crushing battlefield losses.
Only when it became clear that his procrastination had become intolerable to the vast majority of House membership, and that HR 815 would be headed to the floor via discharge petition, did he introduce the four-part aid package for which he now claims credit. But it was his only option, lest he be relegated to utter irrelevance.

April 25, 2024: “The six-month delay (of U.S. military aid) has allowed Russia to exploit Ukraine’s weakened air defense system to deadly effect. With the front lines barely budging over the past year, the war in the skies has started to take a greater toll, with Russia pummeling cities and infrastructure deep into Ukraine.

In April, Russia destroyed the largest power plant in the Kyiv region. According to the most pessimistic estimates, Ukraine’s thermal power plants have lost 85% of their generating potential due to Russian strikes in March and April.”

There’s no dispute that Speaker Mike Johnson’s inaction on the Ukraine military aid legislation dramatically altered the trajectory of the war, reversing Ukrainian advances and allowing Russia to regain the initiative. While repeatedly professing support for the courageous people of that besieged nation, he in fact did everything he could to prevent vital assistance from being delivered in a timely manner.

And that obstructionism continues right up to this day.

Last week, President Biden asked for an additional $24 billion in aid (2/3 of which would go to restocking U.S. arsenals). The Speaker immediately rejected the request, refusing to even consider bringing it to a vote. His pious Easter Sunday profession of concern for “the brave men and women fighting for freedom” instantly withers under the threat of Donald Trump’s disapproval.

Meanwhile, a bipartisan effort by pro-Ukraine Members of Congress to ensure continued support for Ukraine is underway in both the House and the Senate. The “Stand with Ukraine Act” (HR9501) is sponsored in the House by Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), Joe Wilson (R-SC), Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) and Mike Quigley (D-IL). In the Senate it’s sponsored by Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-CN) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC). (Yes, that Lindsey Graham!)

The bill does not require any specific expenditure of funds for military assistance to Ukraine. Rather, it affirms that it is U.S. policy to assist the government of Ukraine in restoring its sovereignty and territorial integrity in order to reverse and deter Russian aggression in Ukraine. That includes guaranteeing Ukrainian sovereignty over Crimea.

Recognizing that Speaker Johnson will refuse to bring it to the floor, backers will try to add the bill’s provisions as amendments to the National Defense Authorization Act. The NDAA is must-pass, end-of-year legislation that authorizes appropriations for the Pentagon and other defense-related activities.

This is a unique opportunity for Mike Johnson to keep his Easter promise not to abandon “the brave men and women fight(ing) for freedom” in the most passive way possible. If added as an amendment to the NDAA, there’d be no need for him do anything other than refrain from opposing the amendment.

If you haven’t the strength to actually help, Mr. Speaker, at least stay out of the way!

“As long as there is a twelve year old boy in Ukraine with a plastic butter knife, there will be resistance to Russian occupation.”