I'm not predicting the future, Dave, just trying to understand this week. My guess is there'll be a whole different ball game when non-defense funding is being considered.
With the 24 election season rapidly approaching, I deeply am bothered by a terrifying matter pertaining to the U.S. House that remains unaddressed. In a word, were no presidential nominee to receive the requisite 270 electoral votes, the election would be decided by the House, and Trump feasibly could become president. To clarify, with each of the House delegations having 1 vote, Republicans currently control 26 delegations, Democrats, 23, and 1 is tied. While we could presume that none of the likely so-called third party candidates will receive any electoral votes or that no machinations will disrupt the vote count, I prefer to research the current numbers of Republicans and Democrats that comprise each state delegation, determine which we most likely could flip, and go to work. To be clear, the electoral outcome would be decided by the House members seated on January 3, 2025.
That's a totally legitimate fear, Barbara Jo, and a worthy project.
I count only 25 Republican majority delegations, and 2 ties (Minnesota and North Carolina). That makes MN and NC obvious targets for flipping which would produce a tie of 25 R's and 25 D's. As the presiding officer, the tie-breaking vote would be cast by VP Harris.
Of course it's better to have a clear majority, so I'd suggest targeting Arizona (6R, 3D) where only 2 seats need to be flipped, and maybe Georgia (9R, 5D) where a 2-seat change would result in a tie and thus a Republican loss.
There is one more complication. That is the need to also protect every existing Democratic majority delegation, particularly the close ones like Alaska, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and especially Virginia where 2 Democrats will be retiring.
BTW, this hasn't happened in a hundred years, and the result then was disastrous. There are almost no rules of procedure for such an election, so presumably the newly-elected House members would have to establish them. If the majority membership is of a different party than the majority of delegations, the potential for total paralysis is obvious.
Also, under the 12th amendment, the vice-president is elected by the Senate, with each Senator having one vote. It's unknown whether the filibuster rule would apply. If so, there'd never be a winner.
The unmistakeable conclusion here is that the 2024 election must be a blue tsunami. And there's no reason it shouldn't be.
The Republican Party is hopelessly split. While Donald Trump commands a slight majority of the party (barely over 50%), it's hard to envision supporters of Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis or.Chris Christie uniting behind him, or they already would have. They may not vote for President Biden, but staying home is effectively the same thing.
Mr. Biden, by contrast, enjoys the full support of about 75% of Democrats for his re-election. His only primary challenger, Dean Phillips, polls at around 4%.
Jerry, Because I’m committed to covering as many potential eventualities as possible, I am deeply grateful for your guidance regarding particular House delegations. As for the Senate, were we to hold our 49 seats (excluding Sinema and, of course, Manchin) we would only have to flip 1 seat currently held by a Republican to have the votes we need either for a filibuster carve-out or some other type of reform to allow for regular order.
It will be interesting to see if your reasoning applies to the supplemental appropriation.
I'm not predicting the future, Dave, just trying to understand this week. My guess is there'll be a whole different ball game when non-defense funding is being considered.
I don't think any of us can safely predict this Congress Jerry. Maybe I'm letting hope outrun experience.
With the 24 election season rapidly approaching, I deeply am bothered by a terrifying matter pertaining to the U.S. House that remains unaddressed. In a word, were no presidential nominee to receive the requisite 270 electoral votes, the election would be decided by the House, and Trump feasibly could become president. To clarify, with each of the House delegations having 1 vote, Republicans currently control 26 delegations, Democrats, 23, and 1 is tied. While we could presume that none of the likely so-called third party candidates will receive any electoral votes or that no machinations will disrupt the vote count, I prefer to research the current numbers of Republicans and Democrats that comprise each state delegation, determine which we most likely could flip, and go to work. To be clear, the electoral outcome would be decided by the House members seated on January 3, 2025.
Thoughts?
That's a totally legitimate fear, Barbara Jo, and a worthy project.
I count only 25 Republican majority delegations, and 2 ties (Minnesota and North Carolina). That makes MN and NC obvious targets for flipping which would produce a tie of 25 R's and 25 D's. As the presiding officer, the tie-breaking vote would be cast by VP Harris.
Of course it's better to have a clear majority, so I'd suggest targeting Arizona (6R, 3D) where only 2 seats need to be flipped, and maybe Georgia (9R, 5D) where a 2-seat change would result in a tie and thus a Republican loss.
There is one more complication. That is the need to also protect every existing Democratic majority delegation, particularly the close ones like Alaska, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and especially Virginia where 2 Democrats will be retiring.
BTW, this hasn't happened in a hundred years, and the result then was disastrous. There are almost no rules of procedure for such an election, so presumably the newly-elected House members would have to establish them. If the majority membership is of a different party than the majority of delegations, the potential for total paralysis is obvious.
Also, under the 12th amendment, the vice-president is elected by the Senate, with each Senator having one vote. It's unknown whether the filibuster rule would apply. If so, there'd never be a winner.
The unmistakeable conclusion here is that the 2024 election must be a blue tsunami. And there's no reason it shouldn't be.
The Republican Party is hopelessly split. While Donald Trump commands a slight majority of the party (barely over 50%), it's hard to envision supporters of Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis or.Chris Christie uniting behind him, or they already would have. They may not vote for President Biden, but staying home is effectively the same thing.
Mr. Biden, by contrast, enjoys the full support of about 75% of Democrats for his re-election. His only primary challenger, Dean Phillips, polls at around 4%.
.
Jerry, Because I’m committed to covering as many potential eventualities as possible, I am deeply grateful for your guidance regarding particular House delegations. As for the Senate, were we to hold our 49 seats (excluding Sinema and, of course, Manchin) we would only have to flip 1 seat currently held by a Republican to have the votes we need either for a filibuster carve-out or some other type of reform to allow for regular order.
Again, my sincere thanks for your help.