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Mar 16, 2023·edited Mar 16, 2023

Jerry, As you know, I labored last December through early January to press seemingly moderate House Republicans and Democrats to reach across the aisle to find a mutually agreeable alternative to Kevin McCarthy as Speaker. Subsequently, as someone, last January, who anxiously watched and waited while Freedom Caucus extremists were extracting concession after concession from McCarthy, alongside 200 so-called establishment Republicans, 18 from Biden-won districts, who voted 15 times over a 4-day period for McCarthy as Speaker, I could arrive at only one explanation—Republicans who survived the 22 midterms had concluded they must hold the base to retain their seats. I am deeply sorry there don’t appear to be any, in my view, receptive, approaching 24, to prioritizing country over winning re-election. Accordingly, one of my 23-24 projects is to flip the aforementioned 18 House seats.

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All that being said, I must add that it's a mistake to think that all Republicans who voted for McCarthy in January did so to appease "the base". I can assure you that Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) was not worried about gun-toting, election-denying white supremacists in his suburban Philadelphia district -- a district that voted for Biden over Trump by 52% - 46%. Likewise, you can be certain that Victoria Sparks (R-IN), a Ukrainian immigrant who holds a BS and MBA from Kyiv Economic Univ. and another Masters from Indiana Univ., recognizes a neofascist movement when she sees one.

The vote for Speaker on the opening day of a new Congress is not like any other vote, both practically and symbolically. With regard to the likelihood of our success in that endeavor, it's worth asking whether any Democrats would have voted for a Republican if there had been some defectors from McCarthy's camp. How many? Surely the progressive caucus would have balked at supporting a white conservative retired general from Omaha -- especially if it meant not voting for the first Black party leader on his first day.

My point is that these two Republicans and several others are still potential allies, particularly as McCarthy's lack of leadership becomes an ever-greater liability to the country. The release of security camera footage is not only an embarrassment, it's a security threat. The threat of a U.S. debt default is something no one wants (except MAGA). And my guess is that the prospect of extremists trying to block funding for Ukraine will make McCarthy's exit inevitable.

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The House vote on Friday on the so-called 'parental rights' issue is worth some analysis. This bill is a manifestation of the chaos felt nation-wide in disrupted school boards and library boards. In many cases the movement takes the form of an atttack on teachers, administrators, and curricula. It also leads to pressure on individual children, not just gay and 'trans' kids, but also in limiting sex education classes and even discussion of any topic touching race. The bill passed 213 to 208. Five Republicans voted with the Democrats against the bill. Andy Biggs, Ken Buck, Mike Lawler, Matt Rosendale, and Matt Gaetz. I certainly don't suggest Gaetz could ever be seen as candidate for 'middle ground', but one or two others might be worth watching. It also would be interesting to see the reasons each say led them to stray from the GOP majority.

The real irony of the story is that the Dems could have won the vote. Instead, they lost - why? Because five of them did not turn up to vote. Asleep at the wheel? See NYTimes "House Republicans Pass 'Parents Bill of Rights Act" - http://bit.ly/3njei3b

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